Navigating the AI Landscape: Enterprise, Human Labour, and Our Place in Society | FutureSight Africa™ with Buntu Majaja | S1E3
Exploring AI's impact on cognition, employment, and societal structure around the globe… An African perspective
Discover the subtle shift in Drake's familiar rhythm, only it's not quite Drake:
This newsletter's discussions about AI voice dubbing are educational only. Unauthorized use of copyrighted material to train AI systems is illegal. We do not endorse or promote such practices.
In this newsletter:
Dive deep into the AI landscape and its monumental impact on enterprises, human labor, and societal structure.
Explore the burgeoning AI trends transforming work, education, and the creative field in Africa and globally.
Contemplate the potential implications of AI's exponential growth and the chasm between consensus data and ARK Investment Firm's projections.
"Every passing minute is another chance to turn it all around." – Sofia, Vanilla Sky
Vanilla Sky, one of the cinematic gems of our time, has always held a special place in my heart - Tom Cruise's performance being undeniably memorable. But what if Tom Cruise, as we know him, isn't truly Tom Cruise?
Have you ever encountered the deep fake version of Tom?
These astounding renditions of the iconic actor are artificial intelligence creations by the company Metaphysic. Talking about the technology has been largely inspired by a compelling TED talk with Tom Graham, the co-founder: (Link) - A Deep Dive into Deep Fake. Here, the potential of deep fake technology is explored, suggesting the preservation of our favourite personas in the virtual realm for perpetuity. Can you fathom a Mission Impossible 105 in 2150?
And ofcourse they did a demo of DeepTomCruise, just for TED:
Does the advent of AI mean we'll never need a new actor to portray James Bond again? Could our favourite rendition of the character effectively monopolize all future performances? It's worth reflecting on this possibility in light of Price's Law, a principle named after Derek J. de Solla Price.
Side note: Price's Law suggests that 50% of work is done by the square root of the total number of people who participate in the work. In simpler terms, as the group grows, a smaller proportion of that group contributes to the majority of the output. This concept has been observed in research publications, musical compositions, and now potentially, performances.
With the proliferation of deep fake technology, we might witness a contraction in the number of performers but a remarkable surge in the quantity and quality of performances. Imagine a scenario where a handful of the most beloved performers effectively dominate the performance landscape. Meanwhile, the remaining performances - from the impressive to the sub-par, real or "fake" - struggle to gain traction or monetize.
In this brave new world, a fresh, AI-driven interpretation of Price's Law may emerge: A small fraction of top-quality performers could account for a majority of performances, while an expanding long tail of lesser-known talents competes for the remaining share. The stakes are changing, and the future of performance might be more unevenly distributed than we can currently comprehend.
But let's broaden the horizon beyond artists. What if this technology was accessible to everyone? Decades from now, after my parents have passed on, I could feed the AI hundreds of hours of their videos and pictures, enabling me to "experience" them anew.
This brings about a new kind of therapeutic and profound emotional journey. Yes, it might be a "fake" behind the screen, but my tears, as I catch a glimpse of my mother just as I remember her from my childhood, those tears are real.
The recent TikTok trend showcases a new generation of AI-powered filters. These filters, rendering a new image over your existing one, pixel by pixel, several times a second, provide an incredibly poignant journey back to the days of our youth.
The cover of this newsletter, crafted in a flash by an AI, underscores a transformation that once would have demanded a designer's time and talent over several days, not to mention a decent sum of $40-$50. In this brave new world, we can't ignore the famous words attributed to Richard Baldwin, a economist and professor: 'AI will not take your job, someone using AI will take your job.'
In creating this newsletter's cover with AI, I can't help but ponder: have I inadvertently displaced someone's job? This concern resonates deeply, especially as we confront a mounting wave of unemployment across Africa, with no signs of ebbing. According to the World Bank, Africa's working population is anticipated to swell by a staggering 450 million by 2035, marking a 70% increase.
However, this surge in the working populace isn't mirrored in our economic growth. Projected GDP per capita growth suggests a grim divergence; a widening chasm between the wealth of nations and the prosperity of individuals. As revealed by JICA's research, if current trends persist, Africa's per capita incomes, even while growing at 1.9% annually, would decline to a mere 200% of the global average by 2050. Consequently, Africa's global GDP share would stagnate around 3 percent, despite an increasing middle-class and decreasing poverty rates.
Such data underscores a disquieting reality: our economic growth isn't keeping pace with our burgeoning workforce. In an era of AI-induced abundance, it's becoming increasingly clear that our concept of employment requires a drastic reimagining. I believe that the only way to manifest a convergence scenario that is drastically different, we need to act with urgency today.
But how does this affect you, you might ask? The impact is significantly influenced by your planning horizon. Are you looking to the long term? Because if you are, you mustn't forget that Africa is the youngest region in the world. There's no other place on Earth with more stakes in the future. So, if you're in for the long haul, it's essential to strategize with these factors in mind, keeping a keen eye on the ever-evolving 'Vanilla Sky' that looms ahead.
As we peer into the horizon, it's clear that our current educational frameworks are lagging in preparing young Africans for the work of the future. Already, the frontier of AI in business is advancing at a pace that outstrips our ability to keep up:
Autocompletion, previously seen in email applications like Gmail, is infiltrating other areas. Engineers are having their code completed by AI, consultants are creating AI-assisted presentations, and bookkeepers are employing AI to compute complex formulas.
As more AI-driven decisions are incorporated into value chains, businesses are relying on AI liability insurance services to cover the associated risks. From self-driving cars causing fender benders to AI-assisted medical diagnostics yielding incorrect results, the implications are far-reaching.
Major companies like Nike, Amazon, and Apple are utilizing AI-augmented warehouses to increase efficiency and reduce human labor. This raises important questions about how African businesses will need to adapt. If local giants like Takealot and Jumia don't transition their workforce, will they risk being pushed out of the market?
Software development is no longer a static process. The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has funded initiatives for software that updates and rewrites itself, ensuring relevance and improvement over a hundred years into the future.
AI is also playing a role in enhancing the human touch in healthcare. It's being used to facilitate more trusting and meaningful conversations between patients and providers in telehealth settings.
What does this mean for our education system? How will it evolve to prepare the next generation for a landscape that's constantly changing? While the answers may not be clear yet, one thing is certain - these trends are set to accelerate. As we navigate this terrain, we must strive to create an inclusive educational framework that equips young minds with the skills needed to shape the future rather than react to it.
Are we sufficiently poised to ride this potential wave of exponential AI growth? Do our businesses, irrespective of size or sector, have the requisite strategy to integrate and capitalise on AI advancements? What might the dramatic expansion in AI spending mean for our local job market and education systems? Are we preparing our young ones with the necessary skills to flourish in this imminent AI-dominated landscape?
Furthermore, what are the implications for Africa's burgeoning startup ecosystem? Could this surge in AI investment propel our local innovators onto the global stage, or conversely, might it usher in a wave of Global north competition that our local firms are ill-prepared to meet? Or they simply become front shops for a few global firms, again…Except this time, they might not all be western?
Lastly, on a personal level, how prepared are we as individuals… which is where the buck truly stops… to navigate this AI-shaped future? Are we upskilling ourselves, staying abreast with the trends, and remaining flexible and adaptable in our lives, work and homes?
Let's turn our attention to Talent, one of the cornerstones of progress. Enrollment in Stanford's Natural Language Processing class has seen a steady, exponential rise since the early two thousands. However, in Africa, the offering of NLP, Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science, and Data Science curricula in higher education institutions is still dishearteningly scant.
Contrast this with developments elsewhere. AI-focused universities are emerging globally. The Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence in the United Arab Emirates was inaugurated in 2021. Similarly, the online University of AI is a collaborative initiative by faculty from Harvard University and the University of California–Los Angeles.
The surge in AI education is primarily industry-driven. Tech giants like Google, Uber, Microsoft, and Amazon have hired over 90 tenured professors and researchers from American universities between 2004 and 2018. These brilliant minds are often enticed into taking sabbaticals, applying their research to commercial enterprises. Unsurprisingly, Glassdoor reported an 11% increase in AI roles from 2017-2018, with an average pay of $123,070 per year. It's no wonder the G-MAFIA (Google, Microsoft, Facebook, IBM, and Apple) spends roughly $76 billion annually on AI R&D, amounting to about 13% of their collective market cap ($6T).
Shifting the spotlight to the creative fields, we find artists, designers, and performers on the front lines of AI's double-edged sword.
In Switzerland's 2018 elections, journalists were outpaced by an AI system doing Automated Versioning, publishing nearly 40,000 articles averaging 250 words each.
Creative scammers are already exploiting AI voice dubbing, duping unsuspecting victims into believing they're speaking to loved ones or business partners.
In 2021, a staggering one billion Chinese watched personal twin performances of synthesized celebrities during the annual Spring Festival Gala broadcasted by CCTV.
In our next episode, we'll venture into the realm of regulatory impacts, examining the diminishing power of nation-states on the global stage, and discussing shifts in societal organization. As we embark on this journey, it's worth reflecting on history - World War II was significantly influenced by the drive for oil, the 'black gold.' Today, in our digitized world, the axiom holds: 'Data is the new oil.' Just as oil was instrumental in shaping the 20th century, data is undeniably the defining resource of our time. The tiny bits of data and microchips that we consume them through are now the biggest geopolitical discussions, bringing us to the brink of a conflict between two world powers, China and the US.
"The little things... there's nothing bigger, is there?" – David, Vanilla Sky